Quick Start

Before analyzing, ask me up to 10 clarifying questions that would
materially change the decision. Then proceed with a decomposition.

Decision (2–5 sentences): [paste]

Decompose it into:
1) Facts vs interpretations
2) Assumptions (tag: likely / uncertain / potentially flawed)
3) Reversibility (reversible vs hard-to-reverse)
4) Actual options (include non-obvious options)
5) Constraints (including self-imposed constraints)
6) Success criteria (3–5 measurable indicators + timeframe)

Here's my leading option: [paste]

Assume it is 12 months from now and this decision/plan clearly failed.
1) Write a realistic failure narrative (sequence of events).
2) List the 5 most likely root causes (Likelihood/Impact/Detectability).
3) Give early warning signs for each root cause.
4) Give preventive actions for the top 3 causes.
5) Define kill criteria: conditions that should make us stop, not "pivot."

Reliability Check:
1) List your key assumptions and mark uncertain ones.
2) Flag any claims that require external verification.
3) Give confidence (Low/Med/High) for each main conclusion.
4) What information would most change your recommendation?
5) Give 3 follow-up questions you need answered to improve accuracy.