The Decision Sprint

Reliability Check:
1) List your key assumptions and mark uncertain ones.
2) Flag any claims that require external verification.
3) Give confidence (Low/Med/High) for each main conclusion.
4) What information would most change your recommendation?
5) Give the top 3 risks of being wrong here.

Before I seek your input on this decision, I need to decompose it properly.

Decision (2–5 sentences): [describe]

Ask me up to 10 clarifying questions that would materially change the decision.
Then decompose into:
1) Facts vs interpretations
2) Assumptions (likely / uncertain / potentially flawed)
3) Reversibility (reversible vs hard-to-reverse)
4) Actual options (including non-obvious options)
5) Constraints (including self-imposed)
6) Success criteria (3–5 measurable indicators + timeframe)

Here's my plan: [describe it]

Assume it is 12 months from now and this plan clearly failed.
1) Write the failure story (sequence of events; concrete, not vague)
2) List the 5 most likely root causes (Likelihood/Impact/Detectability)
3) Give early warning signs for each root cause
4) Give preventive actions for the top 3 causes
5) Define kill criteria: conditions that should make us stop, not "pivot"
6) Success narrative: If it succeeds, what enabling conditions made that happen?

RED TEAM this decision.

MY DECISION: [state it]
MY REASONING: [explain why]

Rules:
- Steel-man the opposition (no strawmen)
- Assume my preferred option is emotionally appealing; compensate for that bias

Deliver:
1) Strongest case AGAINST
2) Hidden costs (financial, relational, opportunity, reputational)
3) Second-order effects (2–3 moves ahead)
4) Who loses + how they might react
5) Reversal test: if we were already in the opposite position, would we switch?
6) Verdict: proceed / proceed with modifications / reconsider
7) What would make this decision catastrophically wrong?

Stress-test this decision across scenarios.

MY DECISION: [describe it]
TIME HORIZON: [6 months / 1 year / 3 years]
KEY UNCERTAINTIES (2–3): [list]

Create 4 scenarios: base case, upside, downside, wildcard.

For each scenario:
- Describe in 3–5 sentences
- Rate decision performance (1–5)
- What we'd wish we had done differently
- 3 signposts (early indicators) that this scenario is unfolding
- 1 adaptive action we can take now that helps here without hurting others

Then:
- Identify 1–3 no-regret moves that help across all scenarios
- Recommend monitoring cadence (weekly/monthly/quarterly) per signpost

Stakeholder Simulation (hypotheses to validate, not mind-reading).

THE DECISION: [describe it]
STAKEHOLDERS:
1) [Role/name] — priorities/concerns/context
2) ...
3) ...

For each stakeholder:
1) First reaction (emotion + thought)
2) Primary concern
3) What they'll say vs what they'll think (if different)
4) What would win them over (evidence, mitigation, trade, framing)
5) Risk if I mishandle communication
6) The best single sentence to say to them first

Then:
- Recommend announcement sequence and why order matters
- List 5 questions I should ask stakeholders to validate these hypotheses

I've completed a structured analysis on this decision. Here's what I've found:
[paste outputs from previous steps]

Synthesize into a Decision Brief:
1) Decision statement (one sentence)
2) Context (what's happening / why now)
3) Options considered (including "do nothing")
4) Recommendation (3–5 sentences)
5) Key supporting arguments (top 3)
6) Key risks + mitigations (top 3)
7) Assumptions (tag uncertain ones)
8) Kill criteria (conditions to stop)
9) What would change our mind (2–3 triggers)
10) Monitoring plan (metrics/signposts + cadence)
11) Decision review date
12) Immediate next actions (3–5)